In the mid-term Survey, Subramanian admitted that demonetisation hit the informal sector hard even as there is a lack of data to quantify the amount of stress those in the informal economy had to bear because of the move.

Economic Survey’s second volume was released which pointed out that demonetisation did lead to a slowdown in the industrial growth in the third and fourth quarters of the last financial year. Later evening, however, a more worrying statistic was released by the government which showed that factory output in the country shrunk for the first time in four years in June this year, as shown by the index of industrial production.

A close watch of Import Export and FPI data reveals more worries in the days to come :

Chapter 8.28 Foreign Portfolio Investments Economic Survey 2016-17 reads :
For the first time since the meltdown of 2008, Net Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) have turned negative (implying that there was an outflow from the Indian markets to the tune of Rs. 23079 crore (Table 6).

Interpretation : Pull out of FPI indicates lack of confidence of Indian stocks by Foreigners to the tune of 23000 Crores Rs.

Chapter 8.29 Indian Exports Economic Survey 2016-17reads :
In line with subdued global growth and trade, India’s exports declined by 1.3 per cent and 15.5 per cent in 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively. The trend of negative growth was reversed somewhat during 2016-17 (April-December), with exports registering a growth of 0.7 per cent to US$ 198.8 billion from US$ 197.3 billion in 2015-16 (April-December).However, growth of receipts of software was marginal and financial services receipts declined. Subdued income conditions insource countries, particularly in the gulf region due to downward spiral in oil prices continued to weigh down on remittances by Indians employed overseas as private transfers moderated to US$ 28.2 billion in H1 of 2016-17 from US$ 32.7 billion in H1 of 2015-16.

Interpretation : Software Exports down by 3.97 billion US$ that is 12% drop. Exports during 2013-2014 was 16.1 % more than present 2015-2016 that is approx 36 billion lost.

Chapter 8.31 - Page 152 Economic Survey 2016-17 reads :
Value of imports declined from US$ 448 billion in 2014-15 to US$ 381 billion in 2015-16, mainly on account of decline in crude oil prices resulting in lower levels of POL imports. During 2016-17 (AprilDecember) imports declined by 7.4 per cent to US$ 275.4 billion compared to the corresponding period of previous year. POL imports declined by 10.8 per cent.

Interpretation : Imports down by 105.6 billion US$ that is 28% drop.

While it was assumed that there would only be short term pains for industry due to lower demand by consumers, the IIP numbers proved that the impact of demonetisation continues to linger on for Indian manufacturing companies, economists said.