The RBI today said that other than a sum of Rs 16,000 crore, all the demonetised Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes had been deposited in banks.
But not all of the Rs 16,000 crore, which accounts for 1.03 per cent of the value of the banned cash, can necessarily be termed as illegitimate or black money.
Here are some of those with legitimate old notes whose money contributes to that figure of Rs 16,000 crore:
Nepal citizens: They collectively hold an estimated Rs 3,500 crore in the banned Indian currency, according to that country's central bank. The RBI has so far delayed allowing Nepalese nationals to return their old notes.
Bhutan citizens: Thousands of Bhutanese citizens collectively hold an estimated Rs 100 crore in the banned Indian currency, according to the tiny nation's central bank. As with Nepal, Bhutan, too, has so far failed to persuade the RBI to take back these notes and compensate its citizens. The RBI has promised it will, but has not said when.
The Rs 16,000 crore that hasn't returned to the RBI yet will likely get trimmed by - at the very least - Rs 3,671 crore, down to Rs 12,329 crore once the central bank takes the banned notes from Nepal and Bhutan.
The other ways of non returned legitimate money includes,
1) PIOs : Thousands of Persons of Indian Origin, who are foreign passport holders but frequently visit India, have investments or business interests here. The Modi government, which has wooed them assiduously, turned a deaf ear to multiple petitions from India's diaspora asking to be allowed to deposit the banned notes at either Indian banks abroad or in India between January and June this year. Assuming that each of these 1.8 million people held just two Rs 500 note in November 2017, the amount of banned notes held by this segment totals Rs 180 crores.
2) According to the tourism ministry, India witnessed a total of 1.93 million foreign tourist arrivals in November-December 2016. Only 40 per cent - 0.76 million - of these came from countries like the US, UK, Canada, Malaysia and Australia that have significant Indian diaspora. Assuming even half of all foreign visitors from these countries were of Indian origin, and each deposited their banned cash by December 31, only Rs 19 crore was deposited and the estimated Rs 71 crore balance in banned notes remains with Indian-origin foreigners who are petitioning the government.
3) Several patients, traders, religious and ethnic minority members, students and businesspersons from South Asia, who routinely visit India and so had some of the banned notes but couldn't visit in November or December, are among these foreigners. Any calculation of the amount in banned notes they hold is impossible.
4) An unknown number of Indians who held the banned currency but couldn't - for legitimate reasons - deposit it in time. This includes soldiers and paramilitary personnel on duty in far-flung areas, the elderly who are alone and could not visit a bank in time and Indians in blue-collar jobs, especially in West Asia, who weren't able to take leave to return to India just to deposit cash.
In net result and if it were to allow Indian-origin foreign nationals to deposit their old notes that would mean the demonetisation helped flush out just 0.80 per cent of the high-denomination notes then in circulation.